我国城市化与碳排放的实证研究

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON URBANIZATION AND CO_2 EMISSIONS IN CHINA

根据1995～2008年我国30个省市的面板数据,采用STIRPAT模型分析城市化对碳排放的影响。结果显示:我国城市化的推进导致碳排放量的增加,碳排放增加速度高于城市化本身的增加速度,城市化进程会继续放大碳排放量的增加;城市化水平的二次项系数为正,意味着还不存在环境的库兹涅茨曲线。同时,为了考察中国地区间发展的异质性,根据城市化水平由高到低分成4组区域,针对不同地区,进行实证分析。发现地区的城市化水平基数越低,城市化进程对碳排放的影响也就越大;地区的城市化推进速度越快,城市化进程对碳排放的影响也就越大;而且,产业结构和能源强度也是碳排放的重要决定因素。鉴于此,提出了若干政策建议。

Using a panel data of 30 provinces of China over the period of 1995~2008 and the STIRPAT model,this paper analysed the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions.The results show that urbanization led to the increase of carbon emissions,and the increase rate of carbon emissions was higher than that of urbanization itself.The urbanization process would continue to amplify the increase of carbon emissions.Urbanization quadratic coefficient was positive.It means that it does not yet exist environment Kuznets curve.Meanwhile,in order to study the regional development heterogeneity,this paper divided China into 4 groups of regions by the level of urbanization,and empirical analysis was carried out in each group of regions.It was found that in an area the lower base level of urbanization,the greater impact of carbon emissions;the urbanization promote faster,the greater impact of carbon emissions.Moreover,the industrial structure and energy intensity were the important determinants of carbon emissions.In view of these,some policy recommendations were proposed.