仓储条件和流动性约束对农户粮食销售行为的影响——基于一个两期销售农户决策模型的研究

The Impact of Warehouse Conditions and Liquidity Constraints on Farmers' Grain-selling Behavior:a Study Based on the Model of the Peasants who Sell Grain in Two Periods

本文以农户粮食销售的利润最大化为基础,建立了一个农户层面上的粮食两期销售决策模型,从理论上推导了粮食仓储条件和家庭流动性约束对农户粮食销售行为的影响。在此基础上,以玉米为例系统研究了粮食仓储条件和家庭流动性约束对于农户粮食销售时机选择的影响。根据对黑龙江、吉林、山东和河南4省640个农户的调查数据和实证模型分析,研究表明,拥有条件较好的专门储存玉米的设施的农户会推迟其玉米销售时机,其元旦前和春节前销售玉米的比例较少,且最后一次销售玉米的时间较晚。相反,流动性约束会促使农户提前其玉米销售行为。

In this paper,based on the maximization of the profit of farmers' grain selling,we have built a model of the peasants who sell grain in two periods,theoretically deriving the impact of the Conditions of the grain warehouse and the impact of the Constraint of the family liquidity on the farmers' behavior of selling grain.On this basis,taking maize as an example,we have systematically analyzed the effect of the above mentioned Conditions and Constraint on selection of timing of farmers' selling grain.Based on the investigation data collected from 620 peasant families in the provinces of Heilongjiang,Jilin,Shandong and Henan and on the analysis of a case model,the results of our study indicate that the peasant households with better grain-storage facilities can delay their sale of maize,who will sell their maize in a small proportion before the new years day and the spring festival and whose latest sale of maize at a later date.On the contrary,the constraint of the liquidity can impel farmers to sell their maize in advance.