随机产出和随机需求下“农超对接”模式的分析与协调

Analysis and Coordination of "Farmer-supermarket Docking" Mode under Stochastic Yield and Random Demand

以我国"农超对接"模式为背景,提出了能使农户和超市在随机产出和随机需求下长期友好合作的方案。然而产出的随机性使得农户面临着产量不足或产量过剩的风险,从农户和超市应对风险的能力出发,文中提出两点来解决此问题:一是当农户的实际产出大于超市订购量时,超市以低于批发价的价格收购农户的多余产出,以解决农户"难卖"的问题;二是当农户的实际产出小于超市订购量时,农户只需给予实际产出部分,对差额部分不需向超市赔偿,以匹配"小农户,低风险"的状况。文章分析了集中式决策和分散式决策下各个参与成员的决策行为并通过算例进行比较说明,最后采用利润共享合同使得供应链达到协调。

Under the background of ＂farmer-supermarket docking＂ mode,this paper proposed a kind of cooperation solution that would enable farmer and supermarket to collaborate friendly in the long term under stochastic yield and random demand.The randomness of yield make farmers face the two risks of excess output or inadequate production,from the aspect of the farmer and supermarket＇s abilities to resist risks,we put forward two solutions： when the farmer＇s actual output is larger than supermarket＇s order quantity,supermarket will take a price that is lower than wholesale price to purchase the overproduction;when the farmer＇s actual output is smaller than order quantity,the farmer just need to provide the actual output to supermarket and doesn＇t give a compensation to supermarket for balance between the actual output and order quantity.This paper discuss different members＇ decision-making behaviors in centralized and decentralized decision making.Then we compare the differences and get some valuable conclusions by a numerical example.Finally,by adopting profit sharing contract,we coordinate the decentralized decision making.