精准抽样是量化分析推论的基础

Precise Sampling and Quantitative Inference

随着近三十年来我国社会的快速发展与深刻变迁,大量农村、小城镇人口向大中城市集中,造成高比例的"人户分离"现象。而城市居民也因为城区改造和扩张,造成城市内部大量的"人户分离"。这使得传统的依赖户籍信息进行抽样的社会科学调查,在样本的抽取方面产生极大的困难与系统偏差。因此,如何以精准抽样为基础,从而避免造成导致"社会整体误解"的调查结果,已成为近年来中国社会科学量化研究中一个不容忽略的问题。本文旨在一方面对那些缺乏精准抽样的研究进行评论,另一方面也向读者介绍依托GIS/GPS最新技术发展而来的"GIS/GPS辅助的区域抽样方法",作为转型期中国社会大规模人口流动条件下精准抽样的解决方案,以供学界参考备用。

As Chinese society has been undergoing significant changes at an unprecedented speed and scale,millions of rural residents have moved into urban areas for jobs and better opportunities of individual development.Meanwhile,the mobility of the city residents has also increased significantly mainly due to the reconstruction and expansion of the city.All these are beyond the ability of the nation’s household registration system to catch up the change.Then such a problem has led to a serious challenge to the sampling of survey research.The traditional sampling method is apparently missing systematically certain social groups,that is,a ＂coverage bias＂.The development of GPS and GIS technologies opens up possibilities for a whole new alternative to solve the coverage bias problem.This paper attempts to introduce a GIS/GPS assisted area sampling method as a solution to coverage bias problem in conducting surveys in China,as well as in other developing countries.