基于岩体加卸载响应原理的强矿震危险性预测

Predicting the risk of strong mining-induced seismicity based on the rock load/unload response theory

以抚顺老虎台矿田为工程背景,采用加卸载响应比理论,开展强矿震预测技术应用研究.研究表明:0≤ML≤0.5矿震在各开采深度作为加卸载响应震级的预测效能均较好,对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信度为0.72;ML≥1.4矿震作为加卸载响应震级,具有深度尺度效应,响应震级与开采深度成正比,一般小于预测震级0.5～1.0,对于阶段峰值震级的平均预测信度0.60;0.6≤ML<1.4矿震作为加卸载响应震级的随机性较大,分析是两种不同机制矿震混合的结果,不适宜作为加卸载响应震级;开采深度越大,地应力环境强度越高,预测敏感性和效果越好.在阜新煤田和门头沟矿田进行普适性检验,预测信度分别为0.8和0.73.试验结果表明,加卸载响应比理论和方法预测强矿震具有较好的效能和应用前景.

Taking Laohutai Coal Mine in Fushun of northeastern China as an engineering background,an application study of strong mining-induced seismicity prediction was carried out on the basis of the load/unload response ratio（LURR） theory.It is shown that when the load/unload response magnitude adopts the mining-induced seismicity of 0≤ML≤0.5,the forecasting efficacy is very good in all mining depths and the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.72.When ML≥1.4,the response magnitude is direct proportion to mining depth,and is generally 0.5 to 1.0 lower than the predicted magnitude,while the average forecasting reliability of the staged peak magnitude is 0.60.When 0.6≤ML1.4,there might be a mixture of two mining-induced seismicities with different mechanisms,which is not suitable to the load/unload response magnitude due to its wide randomness.With the increase of mining depth,the in-situ stress intensity is higher,and the prediction is better.According to universal tests in Fuxin Coal Field and Mentougou Mine,the forecasting reliability is 0.8 and 0.73,respectively.The results indicate that the LURR theory and methods have a good ability and a broad application in predicting strong mining-induced seismicity.