QAR超限事件飞行操作风险诊断方法

Flight operations risk diagnosis method on quick-access-record exceedance

利用某机型的快速存取记录器(QAR,Quick Access Record)数据,对飞机着陆阶段出现的某一QAR超限事件,选取飞机下降率、俯仰角等飞行员综合操作指标在无线电高度20 feet(1 feet=0.3048 m)的数值以及20～0 feet之间的变化率,分析由这些指标构成的"空间"中发生该QAR超限事件的"高风险子空间".对同一机场同一机型的多个航班数据初步分析得到,着陆总重大于62 t、着陆温度小于32℃时,正常样本与QAR超限样本占比接近,表明环境因素并非该样本空间中QAR超限事件的主要因素.为进一步诊断,以超限事件发生率最大化为目标,以划分空间中包含的样本满足一定数量标准为约束,建立数学模型,并以黄金分割法为基础设计了算法,找出这些操作指标上区间的边界值,以此诊断可能触发该QAR超限事件的高风险区域,为飞行员模拟机针对性训练提供指导.

Based on the data ol quick access record（QAR）, a mathematical model was ibrmulated to find the high risk subspace＇, which has high probability for a special QAR exceedance in landing stage, in the space＇ consisted of the flight operation indexes, such as decline rate, aircraft pitch, etc. Focusing on this QAR exceedance, data of above mentioned indexes at 20 feet radio altitude and their change ratios from 20 feet to 0 feet were considered in the method. Preliminary analysis shows that the QAR exceedance samples and the normal samples have a similar ratio in the scope with more than 62 tons total-landing-weight and less than 32 Celsius degrees landing-temperature. This result reflects that environmental factors in this scope may be not the main mechanism of this QAR exceedance. For elaborately diagnosing these samples, the objective of the mathematical model is maximum ratio of QAR exceedance; the subspace＇ must satisfy certain sample size. An algorithm based on golden section was provided, and threshold values of each index were found. The result would guide the pilot＇s simulation pertinence training.