民航安全指数结果分析与预测

Results analysis and prediction on civil aviation safety indices

为了预测民航运行的安全水平,针对评价结果数据序列样本少、不确定性大的特点,选择灰色区间预测方法,建立了民航安全评价的区间预测模型.给出了民航安全指数计算结果,分析了民航运行的安全水平现状,展示了这一安全评价体系的功能和使用方式.通过实例验证了民航安全评价的灰色区间预测模型的正确性,给出了下一年度民航综合安全指数的预测区间.结果表明:灰色区间预测方法是可行的.

In order to predict civil aviation safety, the range prediction model was developed by using grey range prediction method, which suited for the character of less and uncertain of the safety assessment result data. The results of civil aviation safety indices were shown. According to these results, the civil aviation safety level was analyzed, which showed the function and usage of this safety assessment indices system. To demonstrate the validity of grey range prediction method, the grey prediction range model of civil aviation safety assessment was tested by actual data of China civil aviation composite safety index. By using this model, the prediction range of China civil aviation composite safety index for next year was given.