中东北非大格局与中国石油企业的应对

The geopolitical profile of the Middle East and North Africa and a coping strategy for Chinese oil companies

2011年以来,受政治体制、经济危机、地缘政治、现代信息技术普及等各种内外部因素的综合影响,中东北非地区政局出现了近30年来少有的动荡。基于相近的价值体系以及长期建立的合作协调机制,美欧在该地区实施的地缘战略一直左右着局势的发展。鉴于中东北非在地缘上的重要性以及丰富油气资源的巨大吸引,美欧不会停止实施其既定地缘战略的步伐,将继续在亲美或中立的国家中通过多种方式推行渐进式变革,并将打击重点转向伊朗、叙利亚和苏丹这三个仍被美国列为支持恐怖主义的中东国家。在此形势下,将中东北非地区作为海外石油战略投资区的中国石油企业,应在积极参与该地区油气投资的同时,明确在不同国家的业务发展定位,加强与美欧石油公司的合作,提升风险管理能力,做好局势情景规划,积极打造参与国际竞争的核心能力。

Since 2011,driven by a combination of factors,namely political problems,an economic crisis,geopolitics and information technology,the Middle East and North Africa saw surprisingly quick civil unrest sweep across many countries.At the same time,the geopolitical policy of the United States and Europe has affected the situation,on the basis of shared value systems and an established long-term cooperation mechanism.In view of the Middle East's geopolitical importance and the rich oil resources,the United States and Europe will continue implementing their geopolitical policies in the area.On one hand gradual transformation will be completed through a variety of means in pro-Western or neutral countries;on the other hand the focus of force projection will turn to Iran,Syria and Sudan,which are classified by the United States as countries supporting terrorism.The Middle East and North Africa region is a strategic investment zone for Chinese oil companies.While actively chasing investment opportunities,Chinese oil companies should also follow a clear business direction,strengthen cooperation with international oil companies,enhance risk management capabilities,perfect scenario planning,and build international core competencies.