当前世界经济政治局势对中国石油企业“走出去”的影响

Effect of current world economic and political conditions on the "going abroad" strategy of Chinese oil enterprises

近期世界经济政治局势的剧烈变化,对中国石油企业继续实施"走出去"战略带来诸多影响。从经济层面看,世界经济危机对国际石油业产生的影响是间接的。世界石油市场供需总量上升的长期趋势没有改变;世界经济危机通过影响石油需求和国际原油价格,进而影响到石油企业的收益和生产效率。相比之下,从地缘政治层面看,世界经济危机对中国石油企业"走出去"产生的影响更为直接。中东北非地区的政治动荡将改变这一地区的地缘政治格局,强化西方对中东石油资源的掌控,并可能提高石油的政治风险,从而对石油企业国际化经营过程中的资金、人力、物力、组织和管理产生影响。在未来较长一段时期内,国际油价有可能在低于100美元/桶的中等价位波动。相对较低的石油价格将会减弱各资源国的资源民族主义热潮,促进他们对外开放石油资源与市场,这对于正在积极谋求更大规模"走出去"的中国石油企业是一个利好因素。

Recent world economic and political conditions have changed a lot,and influence the'going abroad'strategy of Chinese oil companies.The global economic crisis has indirect effects on the international petroleum industry because the long-term rising trend in world oil market supply and demand has not changed while the world economic crisis affects the oil companies' profit and production efficiency by influencing oil demand and oil prices.In contrast,geopolitical events have a more direct impact on Chinese petroleum enterprises''going abroad'strategy.Political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa will change the geopolitical makeup of the region,strengthen the West's control of oil resources in the Middle East,increase political risk in the oil industry,and have an effect on Chinese petroleum enterprises'deployment and management of capital,manpower,and material resources in international operations.In the long run,the world oil price is likely to fluctuate at below $100.Relatively low oil prices will weaken the nationalist upsurge in managing countries'resources,prompt countries to open their petroleum resources and markets to outside participation,and favor Chinese petroleum enterprises actively seeking to implement a larger-scale'going abroad'strategy.