刘易斯拐点显现期的中国人口与经济发展关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Population and Economic Development of China in the Context of the Emergence of Lewis' Turning Point

1978年以来,中国依靠市场化改革和对外开放的双轮驱动,充分利用人口红利和劳动力充裕的比较优势,创造了经济持续高速增长的奇迹。2008年以来,在国内外经济格局大调整的背景下,支撑中国经济高速增长的部分生产要素正在发生变化。如何在经济转型的关键时期妥善解决要素禀赋变化对中国经济增长的负面影响无疑是未来一个时期内政府所面临的严峻问题。从刘易斯拐点理论入手,通过分析人口红利与经济增长的辩证关系,根据中国现有的人口结构和未来发展趋势,得以从谋求经济健康和可持续发展的角度提出相关意见和建议。

Since 1978, depending on the marketization and the opening policy, through taking full use of the comparative advantage of the demographic dividend and abundant labor force, China creates the miracle of sustain- able economic growth with high growth rate. Since 2008, under the background of significant adjustment of global economic pattern, some production factors that support the economic growth of China have been changing. It will be a severe problem to the government that how to solve the negative impact properly on which the changes of factor endowment have during the critical period of economic restructure. Starting from the theory of Lewis＇ turning point, the article analyzes the dialectical relationship between demographic dividend and economic growth, discusses the present population structure and development tendency, puts forward some opinions and suggestions from the angle of striving for the sound and sustainable economic development.