中国农业银行信贷与三次产业及产业结构升级的实证研究

The Empirical Research of Agricultural Bank of China' s Credit,Three Industries and Upgrading of the Industrial Structure

采用单整、协整、格兰杰因果关系检验等计量方法对1979～2009年农业银行信贷与我国三次产业等数据进行的实证研究表明:农业银行信贷与第一产业产值之间存在互为因果的正相关关系,说明农业银行作为农村金融的骨干力量,对我国农业经济发展起到了积极的促进作用,在服务三农方面做出了重要贡献。同时,农业银行的发展也受益于农业经济的增长。而且,在我国产业结构升级的过程中,农业银行也起到了积极的作用。

The empirical study using metering methods including integration, co -integration and Granger Causality Test based on the Agricultural Bank of China＇ s credit and tertiary industries data in China between 1979 and 2009 shows that, there is positive - going causality between credit of Agricultural Bank and primary industry which means Agricultural Bank gives an enormous impetus to the development of China＇ s agriculture with a role of mainstay of agricultural economy. Agricultural Bank makes great contribution in serving ＂agriculture - countryside - farmer＂ and also gets benefits from it. Agricultural Bank plays a propellant role in the process of industrial structure upgrading.