外部压力是否推动了人民币升值?——基于2005～2010年美国施压事件效果的考察

Have the U.S.Political Pressures Succeeded in Boosting the Appreciation of RMB?

本文综合运用了包括非参数符号检验、配对样本t检验和预测价值检验等多种手段在内的"分类事件研究法"来考察2005～2010年的美国政治压力是否推动了人民币升值。结果显示,美国施压事件总体上对于人民币升值的影响并不显著,这在一定程度上印证了其他学者此前的研究。不过,进一步的分析却表明:当人民币处于固定或贬值状态时,美国施压事件效果的显著性明显提高;而从事件来源看,美国立法部门施压事件所产生的影响相对于美国行政部门施压事件也表现得更为显著;此外,外部压力本身对于人民币汇率的市场预期形成也具有一定预测价值。针对这些新发现,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper explores the impact of political pressures from the United States on the movements of RMB with event study approach. Although the overall result is not significant, it is found that the ＂reversal and smoothing＂ events lead to more significant results than the ＂amplified＂ events. Besides, the pressures from the U. S. legislative bodies also bring about more significant results than the U. S. executive authority. Finally, the authors point out those pressure events per se mav show some nositive, forecast value to guide market expectations.