基于投入角度的农业碳排放时空特征及因素分解研究——以湖北省为例

Research on Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Factor Decomposition of Agricultural Carbon Emission Based on Input Angle——Taking Hubei Province for Example

本研究基于化肥、农药、农膜、农用柴油等4个主要方面碳源,测算了湖北省1993-2010年及其地、市、州2008年的农业碳排放量。结果显示:(1)纵向来看,自1993年以来,湖北省农业碳排放总量、碳排放强度均呈现较为明显的三阶段变化特征,即"上升-平稳-上升"。(2)横向来看,区域差异明显:襄樊、黄冈2地属于碳排放总量、碳排放强度"双高"型地区;随州等4地为低碳排放量、高排放强度地区;宜昌等4地为高碳排放量、低排放强度地区;十堰等6地为碳排放总量、碳排放强度"双低"型地区。进一步利用LMDI模型对碳排放影响因素进行分解研究,结果表明:与1993年相比,效率、劳动力、结构因素分别累计实现了87.30%、71.89%和13.69%的碳减排;而经济因素则引发了269.28%的碳增量。最后,立足于研究结论提出促进湖北省农业碳减排的政策建议。

The research bases on four kinds of mainly carbon source, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, farming film, agricultural diesel, calculating the amount of agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province during the period 1993-2010, as well as 16 cities of Hubei Province in 2008. The results show that, （1） Longitudinal to see, the agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province presents three- stage-characteristic,namely ＂rise-steady-rise＂, as well as the variety track on strength of carbon emission. （2） Crosswise to see, the regional difference is very obvious, Xiangfan and Huanggang are the zones of high-emission-amount as well as high-emission-intensity. Fore areas which including Suizhou are the zones of low-emission-amount as well as high-emission-intensity. Fore areas which including Yichang are the zones of high-emission-amount as well as low-emission-intensity. Six areas which including Shiyan are the zones of low-emission-amount as well as low-emission-intensity. Further more, we decomposed the affecting factor of carbon emission by using LMDI model. The results show that, compared with 1993, efficiency factor cut 87.30% carbon emission, labor factor cut 71.89% carbon emission as well as structure factor cut 13.69% carbon emission. While economy factor increased 269.28% carbon emission. Finally according to the conclusion of this study, we put forward some advices of reducing agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province.