玛纳斯河流域绿洲沙尘暴趋势及其与气候因子的关系

Trend of Sandstorm in the Manas River Basin Oasis and Its Correlation with Climatic Factors

利用玛纳斯河流域绿洲区3个气象站1959-2007年的气象资料,借助小波分析、混沌理论、R/S分析和非参数检验等方法,分析沙尘暴频数的趋势、周期、混沌特性以及气候因子对沙尘暴的影响。结果表明:玛纳斯河流域绿洲沙尘暴频数呈减少趋势,并集中于春、夏两季;该流域绿洲沙尘暴频数存在明显的4年和17年周期性变化;根据R/S分析,流域沙尘暴频数在未来的15年仍保持减少趋势;1959-2007年,流域内沙尘暴、蒸发量和大风日数减少趋势明显,且关联显著,而气温、降水量与最大日降水量表现为升高和增加走势,且关联性较差;流域绿洲沙尘暴频数与NAO指数在夏季存在显著的关联性。

The trends,periods and chaotic characteristics of sandstorm and the impacts of climatic factors on sandstorm variation were analyzed based on the meteorological data observed by 3 weather stations in the Manas River Bain oasis during the period of 1959-2007 and using the methods of wavelet analysis,chaotic theory,R/S analysis and nonparametric test.The results show that the sandstorm frequency was in a decrease trend,and sandstorm occurred mainly in spring and summer;there were the 4-year and 17-year periodic changes of sandstorm frequency in the Manas River Basin oasis;based on the R/S analysis,it is believable to predict that the decrease trend of sandstorm frequency will still maintained in next 15 years;there were the significant correlations between sandstorm and evaporation and gale,but the correlations between sandstorm and other climatic factors were not significant;the sandstorm is closely and significantly correlated with the NAO in summer.