基于谱分析的波罗的海干散货运价指数周期研究

Study on the Periods of Baltic Dry Index Based on Spectral Analysis

对于航运市场周期波动规律的研究有利于航运市场经营者更好地把握市场运行态势,规避市场风险。本文主要以波罗的海干散货运价指数(BFI/BDI)为研究对象,运用谱分析的方法分别研究了运价指数每日数据和月度数据的周期特征,结论是1985年-1999年BFI具有两年、一年、半年的周期成分;1999年-2009年BDI具有三年、一年、半年的周期成分。

The characteristic of shipping cycle has significant implications for ship-owner to avoid the shipping risk. In this paper, spectral method is used to conduct research on the monthly data and daily data of BFI/BDI. The empirical result shows that from 1985 to 1999 there are three cycle components in BFI： two-year, one-year and half a year. From 1999 to 2009, there are three cycle components in BDI： three-year, one-year and half a year.