摘要
应用Morlet小波分析,研究了恩施烟区60年气候资料的周期性变化特征。结果表明,在月季尺度下,各气象因子只具有200~400 d的自然周期,但其周期强弱及时域分布特点不同;在年际尺度下,表现为多层次时间尺度结构特征,各气象因子普遍具有33年的主周期,部分具有19年的次周期和10年的小周期,说明该区域气候主要受太阳辐射周期变化影响,受ENSO循环影响不大。通过主周期变化规律可推断出未来约17年间恩施州降水量、气温、相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速可能会有下降趋势,该趋势有利于烟叶品质的提高,但对烟叶单产可能会有一定的影响。
The Morlet wavelet analysis was applied to analyze the characteristics of periodic climate variation in Enshi tobacco growing area with the climatic records in past 60 years.The results showed that at monthly and seasonal scales,the natural period for each meteorological factor was only 200-400 d,but with different periodic intensities and time domains;at yearly scale,there presented a character of multi-level time structure,all the meteorological factors possessed a primary period of 33 years in common,and some of them also possessed a secondary period of 19 years and a short period of 10 years,which indicated that the climate in this region is mainly affected by the periodic variation of solar radiation rather than ENSO cycle.The primary climate period suggested that the meteorological factors,including precipitation,atmospheric temperature,relative humidity,sunshine hours and average wind velocity,may assume a declining tendency in future 17 years,this tendency will be favorable for tobacco quality,but it may affect the yield of tobacco per unit area.
出处
《烟草科技》
EI
CAS
北大核心
2011年第9期81-84,共4页
Tobacco Science & Technology
关键词
烟叶
恩施
气象因子
小波分析
Tobacco
Enshi
Meteorological factor
Wavelet analysis
