贸易开放、经济增长与中国二氧化碳排放

Trade Openness,Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emission in China

本文首先估算了1997—2008年中国30个省区的CO2排放量,并利用面板数据全面客观地考察贸易开放与CO2排放之间的关系。本文基于不同的模型设定——静态和动态面板模型,以及不同的工具变量策略——外部工具变量、滞后期工具变量以及动态模型设定时的内部工具变量组合,来控制有关变量的内生性。研究结果发现:在加入了人均收入和其它控制变量之后,贸易开放增加了中国省区的CO2排放量和碳强度,国际贸易对中国环境影响是负面的,向底线赛跑效应大于贸易的环境收益效应,但是中国当前面临的环境贸易形势具有一定的客观原因,长远来看,政府应该加强环境规制。

This paper firstly estimates the quantity of CO2 emissions for 30 provinces of China covering the years from 1997to 2008, then uses the panel data to investigate the relationship between the China＇s CO2 emissions and trade openness comprehensively and objectively. Based on the different model settings, static and dynamic panel model, we implement different instrumental variable strategies, external instrumental variable, lagged explanatory variable and a combination set of internal instrumental variables in the dynamic model to control the endogeneity of the related variables. The empirical results show that trade openness increases CO2 emissions and carbon intensity of China＇s provinces, international trade has a negative impact on China＇s environment, the effect of environmental gains from trade is overwhelmed by the effect of race to the bottom, but China＇s current trade environmental situation has certain objective reasons. In the long run, the government should strengthen environmental regulation.