新兴市场经济国家的汇率制度选择

The Determinants of Exchange Rate Regime in the Emerging Economies

本文在考虑当前中国及新兴市场经济国家普遍持有大量美元资产,企业融资主要依靠国内银行,经济时刻面临升值压力的情况下,将Bernanke et al.(1999)模型推广到小国开放经济中,分析了这些国家最优汇率制度的选择以及决定的因素。研究发现,汇率制度的选择与持有的美元资产比例和金融加速器效应直接相关。有管理的浮动汇率制既可以避免浮动汇率制下升值危机使经济陷入流动性陷阱,又比固定汇率制的福利损失要小,是新兴市场经济国家最合适的汇率制度选择。最后,结合中国现阶段面临的情况,给出了相应的对策和建议。

Considering the pressure on the currency appreciation and the abundance of dollar assets universally held byChina and the emerging economies nowadays whose corporate finance mainly rely on domestic banks, this paper extends Bernanke et al. （1999） BGG model to a small open economy to study optimal exchange rate regime and the determinants in those countries. The conclusion shows that the choice of exchange rate regime is directly related to the proportion of U. S. dollar assets and the financial accelerator effects. Managed floating regime is the most appropriate exchange rate regime in emerging market economies for it avoids ＂the liquidity trap＂ which would happen under floating regime in the appreciation crisis and lowers the welfare loss which is relatively larger in the fixed exchange rate system. Finally, considering China＇s current situation, we give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.