我国社会废钢回收量预测

Forecast of Society's Scrap Steel Recovery Amount in China

依据统计数据,采用SPSS软件分析得到全社会固定资产投资总额与钢材表观消费量相关系数最高.依据各省市固定资产投资总额,采用插值法推测得2006—2008年我国各省市(不包含港澳台地区)社会废钢回收量,其加和值与统计值平均误差为5.9%.2011—2015年我国各省市社会废钢回收量均呈上升趋势,2015年各省市社会废钢回收量平均值是2011年的1.8倍;2011—2015年我国东、中、西部地区社会废钢回收量呈递减趋势,2015年东、中、西部地区社会废钢回收量分别为5 683×104,4 190×104和3 148×104t;预计到2015年我国钢材表观消费量将达到8.8×108 t;假设2015年钢材表观消费量保持在8.8×108t水平,则2011—2018年加工废钢回收量高于折旧废钢回收量,并且从2019年起折旧废钢回收量将超过加工废钢回收量.

Using statistical data,the correlation coefficient of societal fixed asset investment and apparent consumption of steel was analyzed using SPSS and determined to be the highest.Based on the total societal fixed asset investment in each province,the recovery amount of society＇s scrap steel in each province（except the regions of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan） was forecasted using the interpolation method from 2006 to 2008.The average error of the statistical and additive value was 5.9%.The average recovery amount of society＇s scrap steel in each province was forecasted to have a rising trend from 2011 to 2015.The recovery amount of society＇s scrap steel in each province in 2015 would be 1.8 times that in 2011.The recovery amount of society＇s scrap steel in eastern,middle and western China showed a declining trend from 2011 to 2015.The recovery amount of society＇s scrap steel was highest in eastern China,followed by middle and western China,which were 56.83 million tons,41.90 million tons and 31.48 million tons respectively in 2015.The apparent consumption of steel would reach a steady state at 880 million tons in 2015.If the apparent steel consumption remains at this level,the recovery amount of processing steel scrap is predicted to be more than that of depreciation steel scrap from 2011 to 2018.Nevertheless,the recovery amount of depreciation scrap would exceed that of processing steel scrap after 2019.