造纸产业全要素生产率增长实证分析——基于“十五”与“十一五”期间产业发展的经验数据

The empirical analysis on the growth of total factor productivity in paper industry

基于"十五"与"十一五"期间我国造纸产业10年发展的面板数据,本文运用非参数DEA模型的Malmquist生产率指数方法,全面测度了造纸业的全要素生产率,并对其具体构成指标进行了实证分析。结果表明,10年间我国造纸产业全要素增长率保持快速增长的良好态势,但与"十五"期间相比,"十一五"期间全要素生产率增速减缓,下降趋势明显,造纸产业面临后续发展动力不足,亟需进行发展方式转变等现实问题。同时发现,技术效率指数与技术进步指数对全要素生产率贡献存在不同,且产业内不同类型企业的全要素生产率差异较大。所做分析,既是对造纸产业发展内在动力的深入剖析,也对"十二五"期间改进与提升我国造纸产业发展水平具有一定的参考价值与借鉴意义。

Based on the last ten years' data of China paper industry in the period of 10th five-year plan and 11th five-year plan,the total factor productivity of paper industry was measured with non-parameter DEA model and Malmquist productivity index,and the empirical analysis on the concrete targets was made.The results show that the growth of total factor productivity in paper industry kept in a good situation in the last ten years,but the growth rate in the period of 11th five-year plan slowed down obviously compared with the period of 10th five-year plan,which illustrates that China paper industry is facing with several problems,such as subsequent development underpowered and urgent transformation in development mode.