山东省城市化进程与产业结构演变的互动机制分析

An Analysis on Interaction Mechanism of Urbanization and Industrial Structure Evolution in Shandong Province

城市化与产业结构互为影响,互相促进。在分析1978-2009年山东省城市化和产业结构演变特征的基础上,选取城市化率和第二、三产业产值作为指标,通过协整分析与误差修正模型等计量方法,从实证角度分析了山东省城市化发展与产业结构调整之间的长期作用机制,并进一步得到了三者的因果关系。实证结果表明,第三产业对城市化拉动作用优于第二产业,三者存在长期稳定的均衡关系;格兰杰因果检验表明,城市化对第二产业发展有重要作用,但是产业结构演变对城市化进程的推动并未得到支持。

Urbanization and industrial structure are two economic development systems that affect and promote each other. Based on analyzing the characteristics of urbanization and industrial structure evolution from 1978 to 2009 in Shandong, the article from the perspective of empirical test, tested the long-term mechanism between the urbanization development in Shandong province and the industry structure adjustment through the method of co integration analysis and error correction model by selecting the urbanization rate and the production value of the second and third industry as the index, and verified the causal relationship of them. The empirical results indicate that the stimulation effect of the tertiary industry on urbanization is better than the second industry and there is long-term stationary equilibrium relationship among the three factors. The Granger causality test reveals that urbanization plays an important role in the development of secondary industry, but the hypothesis that the evolution of industrial structure stimulates the urbanization is not been supported.