基于灰色系统模型的阿拉尔垦区农业水资源供需平衡预测及分析

A Prediction and Analysis of Agricultural Water Supply and Demand in Irrigation Areas in Alar Based on the Gray System

对新疆阿拉尔垦区农业水资源短缺情况进行分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)方法,预测了其农业供需水状况及其余缺水程度。结果表明:当供水保证率P=50%时,2015年缺水为3.178亿m3,占总水量的24.47%;而在供水保证率P=75%时,缺水则增加到3.614亿m3,占总水量的28.79%,可见,缺水越来越严重。因此,在常规灌溉条件下,供水量不能满足农业用水的需求,且农业水资源的短缺将严重制约阿拉尔垦区经济的发展。水资源供需矛盾必须依靠垦区水资源的深度开发和节水等措施才能得以解决,以此来实现垦区农业水资源和经济的可持续发展。

In this paper, the shortage of agricultural water resources is analyzed and the agricultural water supply and demand, and water shortage level is predicted based on the grey system GM（1,1）model. The results show that when the water supply rate P=50%, the shortage of water quantity will be 3. 178× 10^8 m^3. When P= 75%, the shortage of water quantity will he 3. 614 × 10^8 m^3. It＇s concluded that water supply can not meet the needs of the agricultural water demand in conventional irrigation and the shortage of agricultural resources will seriously constrain regional economic development. To achieve development of water and economy irrigation areas in Afar, it is suggested that contradiction between water supply and demand must he solved through further development of wa ter resources and water-saving measures.