中国证券分析师盈利预测准确度的影响因素——来自中国股票市场的证据

Influencing Factors for Analysts' Forecast Accuracy——Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

以中国A股上市公司2005年至2009年的数据为样本,研究了证券分析师的个人能力及所处工作环境与其盈利预测准确度的关系。研究结果表明,在中国股票市场,分析师的相对预测准确度与其个人从业年数、对公司的跟进年数和跟进的公司数之间存在着不同程度的正相关关系,与其跟进的行业数之间存在一定程度的负相关关系,但与券商规模之间没有显著关系。

This paper studies the relationship between analysts＇ forecast accuracy and personal ability,and the working environment by using the data of Chinese stock market from 2005 to 2009.The result shows that,either analysts＇ individual ability or the number of companies he follows has a positive relationship with the forecast accuracy.Also a negative relationship between the number of his following-up industries and his accuracy can be found in this research.But the authors do not find a significant relationship between broker＇s size and the accuracy.The finding helps us to understand the function of analysts in China,and is also useful for investors to make a better decision when considering the advice from analysts.