四川省安全生产与经济社会发展关系模型研究

Research on the Model of Relation between Work Safety and Socio-economic Development of Sichuan Province

对四川省"十一五"期间相关数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取出影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并将这些因素纳入SPSS回归分析,建立起事故统计模型,揭示出安全生产具有与经济社会发展相吻和的阶段性特征;通过运用ARMA模型,预测出"十二五"时期全省生产安全事故下降幅度趋缓,安全生产工作将面临较大压力,提出政府必须根据经济社会发展的阶段性特征找准安全发展的应对之策。

Based on grey correlation analysis during the ＂Eleventh Five - Year Plan＂ period in Sichuan province, this paper extracts the main economic and social factors that influence safety situation, and bring these factors into the SPSS regression analysis to establish accident statistics model. It reveals the joint characteristic between work safety and socio - economic development. By using ARMA model, it predicts the decline of work safety accident in ＂Twelfth Five - Year Plan＂ period, and the work safety will face tremendous pressure. It puts forward the policy measure according to socio - economic development characteristics and safety development.