土地供应量对新建商品房市场的影响——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

The Effects of Land Supply on Newly-built Commercial House Market——An Empirical Study Based on 35 Large and Medium-sized Cities

构建基于面板数据的误差修正模型,定量分析了土地供应量对新建商品房市场的影响作用。实证结果显示,两年前和当年的土地供应量对当年的新建商品住宅供应量有正向影响,对当年的新建商品住宅均价有负向影响。研究结果表明,土地供应量对住房供应量和房价有长期、稳定的影响作用,限制土地供应导致住房供应量减少,房价上涨。对此,政府应充分发挥土地储备调节市场供应的功能,在市场繁荣期,增加较差地段的土地供应量;并且在决定土地供应时应有前瞻性和预见性。

Using error correction model based on panel data,this paper makes a quantitative analysis on how land supply affects newly-build commercial house market.The results show that land supplies of this year and two years before both have negative impacts on house supply and positive influences on housing price.These results show that land supply has long-term stable influence on house supply and price.Constraints on land supply lead to the decrease of house supply and rise of house price.Government needs to adjust land banking to market supply,increasing supply of suburb land when house price is too high.Besides,government should make perspective and foreseeable decision of land supply.