摘要
本文基于混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、采用状态空间研究方法,分析了我国通货膨胀的动态特征、影响因素和未来趋势。主要结论为:我国通货膨胀具有显著的动态性,理性预期、适应性预期及产出缺口均是现实通胀的有效驱动因素。2011年第四季度通胀压力依然较大,且明年上半年物价在相对高位运行。
On the base of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,this paper analyzes China＇s Inflation dynamics,influencing factors and future trends by the method of ＂State Space＂.The main results： there is obvious dynamic feature in China＇s Inflation;rational expectation,adaptive expectation and output gap are the valid drivers in determining real Inflation;the pressure of Inflation is still large in the 4th quarter of 2011,and CPI will run high in the 1st half of next year.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2011年第11期58-62,共5页
Financial Theory and Practice
关键词
通胀预期
动态通胀机制
产出缺口
Inflation Expectations
Dynamic Inflation Mechanism
Output gap
