基于可拓物元模型的我国海洋油气业安全评价及预警机制研究

Safety Assessment and Early Warning Mechanism of China's Offshore Oil-gas Industry Based on Extension Matter-element Model

运用运筹学理论和方法,建立海洋油气业安全评价的可拓物元模型,对2001～2007年海洋油气业的安全度做出评价。结果表明,2001年我国海洋油气业安全状态处于较安全,2003年处于临界安全,2007年处于较不安全,产业安全整体水平有变低的趋势,目前处于较不安全级别,系统不够稳定。海洋石油勘探污水入海量、海洋油气业产值的增加和从业人员增长等因素是我国海洋油气业产业安全的主要限制因素。基于海洋油气业安全指标体系,提出建立我国海洋油气业安全的预警机制。

This paper establishes the extension matter-element model of marine oil-gas industry by using Operations Research theory and methods,and assesses to the security of the offshore oil-gas industry from 2001 to 2007.Evaluation shows that： in 2001,so the industry is in a relatively safe condition;in 2003,it is in a critical safety status;security status in 2007 is relatively unsafe for;the overall level of industry safety turned out to be worse in eight years.The current security level of offshore oil-gas industry is relatively unsafe,and it remains unstable.The quantity of sewage in offshore oil-gas exploration,increasing rate of offshore oil-gas industry output and growth of employee are the major limiting factors to the security of China’s offshore oil-gas industry.Finally,based on the establishment of offshore oil-gas industry safety indicators system,we establish early warning mechanism for the safety of China’s offshore oil-gas industry