基于效用理论的高技术产品销售预测

The Sales Forecasting of High-technology Products Based on Utility Theory

从效用理论出发,综合考虑影响消费者购买行为的主要因素,建立基于效用理论的高技术产品预测模型。运用CD唱机、DVD播放机和数码相机数据进行实证,将模型与基本Bass模型和PH模型进行比较。结果显示,该模型明显优于基本Bass模型和PH模型。模型在预测时方便可靠,可对产品成长初期销量进行准确预测,为企业制定合理的投资计划提供依据。

This paper builds a utility-based forecasting model for the high-tech product based on utility theory, considering the integral factors that influence the consumer behavior. With the data of CD, DVD player and digital camera market, this paper conclude that： compared with the Bass model and PH model, this model has superiority to them; it is much more convenient and reliable in sales forecast and making a reasonable investment plan for the enterprises.