银行贷款、可支配收入与房地产价格波动:1999～2010——基于协整检验和VEC模型的实证分析

Bank Credit,Disposable Income and Real Estate Price Fluctuation:1999-2010——Empirical Analysis Based on Cointegration Test and VEC model

通过协整和VEC模型的经验分析发现:我国房地产价格的贷款弹性为正,银行贷款的顺周期效应明显,房地产价格的上涨推动了银行贷款增加;房地产价格的利率弹性为正,资金价格的变动导致成本约束效应相对有限;在短期,人均收入和利率对房地产价格的贡献更为显著。长期来看,政府面对房地产价格的波动会做出适当的反向调整。房地产价格在受到银行信贷正向冲击后出现递增趋势,银行信贷对房地产价格具有2个月的时滞效应。房地产市场的发展关系民生以及国家宏观经济增长,所以要审慎调控,不能一刀切。

By empirical analysis based on Cointegration Test and VEC models, the article shows that： the real estate price＇ loan elasticity is positive; pro-cyclical effects of bank loans is significant; real estate price drives bank lending in- crease; real estate price＇s interest rate elasticity is positive; capital price change leads to a relatively limited effect of cost constraints; in the short term, the per capita income and the interest rate make more significant contribution to real estate price. In the long term, the government will make the appropriate reverse adjustment in the face of fluctuation in real estate price. The positive impact of the bank credit results in increasing of real estate price. Bank credit has 2 months＇ lag effect on real. estate prices. The development of real estate market relates to the livelihood and the national c growth, so it should be prudentially regulated.