户籍制度改革的成本与收益估算：基于广东省的数据

An Estimate on the Fiscal Cost and Benefit of "Hukou" System Reform: An Analysis of the Data From Guangdong

户籍制度改革是中国当前的一项重大议题,制度改革的财政成本和收益迫切需要得到准确的估算。从人口迁移和福利磁力的研究视角出发,本文聚焦于制度改革的社会救助福利成本与收益,在估算公式中纳入了区域福利水平差距、劳动者定居比率和福利迁移比率等数据指标进行估算。估算结果表明:现阶段制度改革的高昂财政负担和我国相对紧张的财政状况,使制度改革只能遵循渐进的方式进行,目前仍不具备立即推行全面改革的足够空间。

＂Hukou＂ system reform is one of the important policy issues facing China and It is import to estimate the fiscal cost and benefits of the ＂Hukou＂ system reform as much accurate as possible before the enforcement of the reform. From the perspective of migration and welfare attraction, this paper tries to estimate the costs and benefits of ＂hukou＂ reform given that the reform requires more fiscal input in social assistance. The estimate model adopt the variables such as inter-regional gap in welfares, rate of settling down, welfare migration rate and eta. The result shows that the ＂hukou＂ System reform can brings about a very large fiscal burden to government of the urban, thus the reform can only be push forward step by step and the rapid and overall reform is not matured yet at present.