面向大型化工项目建设的风险评价研究

For risk evaluation research of large chemical projects construction

针对大型化工项目建设过程中风险较难准确评价的问题,在考虑影响大型化工项目事故发生的多种因素的基础上,构建了大型化工项目建设风险评价指标体系,然后利用可拓学中的物元分析算法进行研究,建立了大型化工项目建设风险评价物元分析模型,接着采用指数超标法确定各等级权重,并用定量的数值来表示风险因子评定结果。最后应用实例表明大型化工项目建设风险物元模型计算过程简便、实用性强,且能够很好的反应大型化工项目建设过程中的风险状况,为大型化工项目建设过程中的风险评价提供了一种合理可行的评价方法。

For the difficult to evaluate the risk of large-scale chemical projects construction accurately, the measurement index of large chemical project construction system is set up. Then, using matter element theory, the matter element model of large-scale chemical project construction is established. Furthermore, calculating the weight of the index using index exceeded method, it can reflex the risk factor＇s quantitative value. Finally it shows that the model is simple and practical, and can be a good reaction for large chemical project construction status. It provides a good risk evaluation method for the process of the large-scale chemical project construction.