福建省台风灾害直接经济损失预评估模型

The Pre-evaluation Model of Typhoon Disaster Losses on Fujian Province

基于2000—2009年对福建省造成灾害损失的22个台风数据,将台风分为气象型灾害和混合型灾害,利用数理统计的方法建立台风灾害直接经济损失预评估模型,在得到致灾因子和损失因子的多项式拟合关系基础上,进行了台风损失的悲观估计和乐观估计,并对台风灾害的影响等级进行了评估.研究结果显示该模型具有较高的拟合率,由误差分布和实际评估结果计算的模型的有效率均达到80%以上,能够较好地预评估台风可能造成的直接经济损失并能有效地分析台风灾害的趋势;灾害等级预报的准确性稍低于灾害经济损失预报的准确性,但总体属于同一水平.模型的建立可为防灾减灾提供科学依据,具有实际意义.

Based on twenty-two typhoons data from 2000 to 2009 which caused great impact on Fujian Province,an assessment model of direct economic losses for typhoon disaster was established.The typhoon disaster was divided into two different types,one was meteorological typhoon and the other was mixed typhoon.The mathematical statistics method was applied to polynomial fitting for further calculation of the losses ranges.Meanwhile,the assessment of disaster grade was also included.The results show that the accuracies calculated distribution of error and actual result of the model are both above 80%,while the discrepancy between the two methods is less than one percent.So the model established can reasonably pre-evaluate the losses caused by typhoon disaster of different density and analyze the trend of typhoon disaster effectively.The consequence also shows that the pre-assessment results of disaster grading are in accordance with the results of direct economic losses,although the former accuracy is slightly lower than the latter.Therefore,this model can be applied in the actual pre-assessment of direct economic loss from typhoon disasters,which is based on the observation data as well as the economic data.The result could be given to the government as a reference and support decision-making for disaster recovery.