中国产业集聚发展演变趋势探讨——基于“中心外围”模型的分析

Analysis of the Trend of Industrial Cluster Evolution in China: Based on Transformed Core-Periphery Model

产业在特定区域的集聚和扩散转移是有规律可循的。通过对新经济地理学的"中心——外围"模型加以改造,用以解释我国目前的产业集聚格局,并预测我国产业集聚的未来发展演变趋势。得出的基本结论是我国东部地区的一部分运输成本低且主要使用普通劳动力的劳动密集型制造业将向中西部地区转移,而运输成本高或密集使用资本、技术、高技能劳动力的制造业将仍然布局于东部地区。同时中西部地区应不断完善自身条件,以承接东部地区的产业转移,嵌入全球价值链。

There is a law in the evolution of industry cluster in specific areas. This paper tries to apply the transformed Core-Periphery model of New Economic Geography to explaining the current industrial distribution patterns in China, and to forecasting the development tendency in the near future. The basic conclusions are as follows： labor-intensive industries with low transportation costs and requiring mostly unskilled labor will shift to the middle and western regions. The middle and western regions should constantly improve the local conditions to prepare for accepting industrial transfer and to be embedded in global value chain.