我国金融发展与资本形成的动态关系研究

The Empirical Study on the Relationship between Financial Development and Captital Formation in China

改革开放以来,我国经历了高储蓄、高投资与高增长的发展过程。中国金融体系的形成与发展过程,是中国金融政策从金融压抑逐步向金融自由化转变的过程。中国金融体系对资本形成究竟产生什么影响?本文运用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)方法,对1978～2008年我国各省金融发展与资本形成之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,1978～2008年期间,当期和滞后一期的金融发展规模水平每增加1个百分点,能够使固定资本形成率增加0.137个百分点和0.07个百分点;当期金融存贷款比每增加1个百分点,能够使固定资本形成率提高0.09个百分点;非国有部门贷款对固定资本形成有一定负面影响。笔者建议:进一步推进中国金融的市场化改革;促进区域间金融机构合作,扩大金融机构异地授信规模;加快建立一个以中小金融机构为核心的金融体系。

China has experienced high-deposit,high-investment and high-increasing development since the reform and opening up.The forming and development process of financial system in China has witnessed the procedure of China financial policy from financial repression to financial liberalization.In order to explore the effects of financial system to capital formation,the paper aims to conduct empirical research on the relationship between financial development and capital formation of the provinces in China from 1978 to 2008 based on SYS-GMM model.The findings have stated： First of all,1% increase of financial development scale in current and one lagged period,would cause fixed capital formation ratio to raise 0.137% and 0.07% accordingly.Secondly,1% increase of current deposits and loans would improve 0.09% of fixed capital formation ratio.Lastly,deposits of non-stated departments in current and one lagged period have a little negative or non-influence to fixed capital formation ratio.The suggestions of the paper are as follows： Firstly,the market reform of financial system in China should be further driven.Secondly,the regional cooperation of financial institutions should be promoted,and the scale of credit granting should be extended.Lastly,the financial system which focus on small and medium sized financial institutions should be accelerated to build up.