基于马尔科夫模型的石河子垦区土地利用动态变化研究

Dynamic Monitoring Analysis of Land Use in Shihezi Based on Markov Model

【目的】研究石河子垦区近年来土地动态变化,为该地区生态环境保护提供依据。【方法】以遥感数据、土地资源调查数据为基础,基于马尔科夫模型,研究石河子垦区土地利用动态变化。【结果】2010年后土地利用变化的趋势是草地和未利用地减少明显,其中未利用地减少幅度仍为最大;耕地、建设用地逐年增加,其中耕地的增长幅度最大,建设用地变化速度缓慢;其他土地面积均有所增加,只是增幅也较缓慢。【结论】影响石河子垦区土地利用变化的主要驱动因素是经济快速发展和政府决策等社会因素。

[ Objective ] This study aimed to investigate the land use change and development trend ot Shihezi to provide the basis for ecological and environmental protection in the region. [ Method]The study was based on remote sensing images and land resources survey data, and by using Markov models to study land use change Shihezi Reclamation. [ Result] After 2007, the trend of land use change was the significant decrease in grassland and unused land. Thereinto, the unused land reduced most greatly. Farmland, construction land increased year by year. Actually the maximum growth rate was farmland, construction land change was slow ; other land area increased slowly. [ Conclusion]The main driving factors of land use change in Shihezi are the increased rainfall in recent years, rapid economic development, government decision -making and other factors.