“穷者越穷,富者恒富”发展格局的动态演化与产业成因:1978-2006

Dynamic Evolution and the Industrial Reasons for "The Poor Getting Poorer, and The Rich Richer": 1978-2006

本文使用非参数的核密度估计测算了中国省域间人均GDP分布的动态发展趋势,并进一步对导致这种趋势下的产业成因进行估算。主要研究结论:第一,省域间的人均GDP分布出现"穷者越穷,富者恒富"的两极分化格局,且大多数省域的发展陷于"贫困化陷阱"状态;第二,两极分化格局的产业分解显示,"极化"主要表现在第二、三产业在省域间发展的差距,而第一产业在省域间的发展基本不存在差距;第三,第二产业在省域间的差距中起着最重要的作用,但是随着中国加入WTO,其作用正趋于弱化,而原本不起作用的第三产业在省域间的差距的扩大填补了第二产业的弱化作用,但第一产业在省域间的分布有助于省域间人均GDP分布的趋同。

This paper tries to adopt the kernel density function to study convergence in Chinese provinces,and than search the industrial reasons of the results.We find that: Firstly,the data shows that the poor getting poorer and the rich richer,with the middle class vanishing.Secondly,the phenomenon of the polarization is mainly due to the disparities in secondary industry and tertiary industry among all provinces,and the primary industry is convergence.Finally,after China has formally entered the WTO,the disparity in secondary industry has been getting weaker,but the disparity in tertiary industry has been getting enlarger and substituting this weakness.