气候变化敏感区温度因子对农用地等别的影响评价

Impacts estimating of thermal factors on agricultural land classification in susceptible area

东北地区是中国重要的粮食主产区,也是全球气候变化的敏感区,由气候变化引起的主要粮食作物生长期、分布状况及农用地产能变化趋势,已成为全球变化研究和国土资源管理的重要议题。该文以东北粮食主产区的21个气象站点1960～2005年日均温资料,并结合国家农用地分等规程中的指定作物光温生产潜力数据为基础,利用方差分析等统计学方法,构建光温生产潜力模型,探讨5～9月累积平均温度同玉米和大豆光温生产潜力之间的相关关系。结果表明:1)自20世纪60年代以来中国东北气候敏感区表现出明显的增温趋势;2)温度与玉米和大豆光温生产潜力之间均存在正相关关系,未来温度增幅在3.89℃的情景下,玉米光温生产潜力可增加217.6kg/hm2,大豆光温生产潜力可增加72.6kg/hm2,可使农用地等别提高10%左右;3)同时两种作物的适宜区均发生明显的北移东扩现象。

As the major grain-producing area,northeast China is sensitive to the climate change.The change of growing season length,distribution of crops,and productivity of cultivated land caused by warming,has become the focus in land and resource management Based on statistic data of 21 weather stations during 1960~2005 and data of photosynthetic thermal productivity of corn and soybean,statistical methods are used to analyze the impacts of thermal factors on agricultural land productivity.The results show that:1)temperature during May to September shows clear growth trend from 1960 to 2005,2)positive correlation existed between temperature and photosynthetic thermal productivity of corn and soybean.In future climate scenarios,temperature increased by 3.89℃will result in 217.6 kg/hm 2 increment in corn, as well as 72.6 kg/hm 2 in soybean.At the meantime,the level of agricultural land classification will improve 10%,3)and the planting area of these two kinds of crops will push towards northward and eastward.