城市森林火灾时空蔓延模型构建

Modelling on temporal and spatial spread of city forest fire.

城市森林火灾是城市林业发展过程中出现的新问题,一旦发生森林火灾,对城市的整体运行功能带来毁灭性的破坏和危及人民群众的生命安全。该文以城市森林火灾发生后时间和空间上的蔓延为主要研究内容,以现代空间信息技术(航天遥感、航空摄影、地理信息系统、全球定位系统)为主要获取灾害信息的手段和工具,以非线性数学(人工神经网络、遗传算法、灰色系统)等为建模基础,应用知识发现技术提出了构建城市林火模型的思路。通过对城市林火的研究,建立城市林火蔓延和林火预测模型,有助于了解和预测林火的蔓延趋势范围及不同措施对林火蔓延的影响,从而为防止森林火灾的发生和评估灾后损失等提供依据。

City forest fire,a new problem appearing in forestry development process in a city,can bring disastrous destruction to the city in the running of its whole function and endanger people's safety.This study focuses on spatial and temporal spread of city fire after its outbreak.The modern space information technologies (astronautic remote sensing,aerial photography,geographic information system,global positioning system) were used to obtain disaster information.Non-linear mathematics (artificial neural network,genetic algorithm, gray system) was the basis of modelling.Applying the knowledge discovery technique,a city forest fire model was built.The model is helpful to understand more about the causes of city forest fire,to forecast its spread tendency and scope,and the impact of different measures on the fire spread.It can provide references for preventing the occurrence of a forest fire and estimating the loss of a disaster.