基于GIS的森林火险评估研究

Evaluation of forest fire risk based on GIS.

在利用地理信息系统对北京市房山区以往的气象及林火资料进行空间统计分析的基础上,探讨王正非林火蔓延模型对房山区林火评估的适用性。将计算出的评估结果与实际林火数据进行分析和比较,认为王正非林火蔓延模型可用于房山区森林火险评估。但是如果只考虑气象因素、地形及可燃物的影响,林火危险临界值应取为R_0≥0.6 m/min。引起房山区林火的火源主要是人为火,该文尝试着量化人为火源因素对森林火险评估的影响,并将其补充到森林火险评估模型中,对人为火源因素对森林火险评估结果的影响进行了初步探讨。

The applicability of the forest fire spread model proposed by prof.WANG Zheng-fei in evaluating forest fires in Fangshan District of Beijng was discussed based on GIS spatial analysis of weather and forest fire data. The model can be used to predict forest fires in Fangshan,which was proved by analysis and comparison between a series of calculation and recorded data in Fangshan.The critical value of forest fire risk should be R_0 ≥0.6 m per minute when only weather was considered.Most forest fires in Fangshan were caused by human activities.The quantitative analysis of forest fires caused by human activities in Fangshan was considered and added to the model for evaluation of forest fire risk.