基于证据理论的固体火箭发动机不确定性设计

Uncertainty Design of Solid Rocket Motor Using Evidence Theory

飞行器设计过程中客观存在许多不确定性,包括参数的随机不确定性和可认知不确定性,证据理论可以对上述两类参数不确定性进行建模,得到系统响应概率的不确定性区间并进行飞行器不确定性设计。基于证据理论进行了固体火箭发动机壳体不确定性设计,得到更加合理的设计结果和可靠性概率的不确定性区间,为发动机设计提供了更多的设计依据。

In the process of aircraft design, there exits a vast amount of uncertainties, which includes random and episte-mic parameter uncertainty, evidence theory provides us with a useful modeling tool for random and epistemic parameter uncertainty, then aircraft can been designed by taking into consideration these uncertainties. Evidence theory has been applied for solid rocket motor case uncertainty design, the more suitable design result and the uncertainty interval for system reliability probability can been obtained, and enough design information can been provided for the design of solid rocket motor.