基于灰色理论的青少年犯罪预测模型及其应用

Youngster Criminal Forecasting Model and Application based on the ’Grey Theory’

本文采用灰色系统理论中的灰色预测方法对青少年犯罪进行趋势预测,根据某地区统计资料建立灰色动态数列预测模型,对该地区未来几年青少年犯罪进行预测研究,通过算例可知,预测结果是令人满意的。

This paper uses grey forecasting technique in the Grey System Theory to predicate the youngster criminal tendency. It suggests that a grey trends model can be built up, based on certain local statistics data, to study the tendency in a few years in this area, and the model was proved to be effective.