故障树的Monte Carlo改进算法

The Modified Monte Carlo Arithmetic of Fault Tree

基于大数定律,对传统故障树的MonteCarlo可靠性数字仿真方法进行改进,提出了一种更优化、简便的算法,并以求系统平均首次故障时间为例,通过编程进行了实例计算。实例表明:计算效率提高了数倍,同样仿真次数下,计算精度与传统方法相当。尤其对导弹等复杂系统的可靠性问题,该算法在程序编写、计算耗时上,显示了很大的优势,具有很强的实用性和适应性。

According to law of averages,the traditional Monte Carlo digital simulation of fault tree is modified in the paper.A more optimizational and simpler Monte Carlo arithmetic of fault tree was introduced.With the new arithmetic,some practical calculations are made in program.Compared to the conventional method,the program construction of new method is simpler,the calculation is more efficient.The accuracy is the same as the conventional method.To the complex reliability question,the new method has many advantages in the program writing and the calculation time.This indicates that this method is more practical and apt to many cases.