应用模糊集成法预测油气空间分布——以大民屯凹陷潜山为例

Prediction of Hydrocarbon Spatial Distribution by Using Fuzzy Integration Method

模糊集成法采用模糊集合表征勘探信息存在的不确定性,通过数学方法将地质信息、钻探数据和主观经验有机结合在一起,最终得到预测油气空间分布规律的成果图即后验概率图,表示未发现油气空间状况,这样能有效降低勘探风险。应用该方法对大民屯凹陷潜山油气空间分布进行了初步预测,基本圈定了油气的分布范围,能有效指导油气勘探。

The course of hydrocarbon accumulation is complex,and many factors may be dealt with in this course,and the part of geological data obtained during exploration are uncertain and limited.The fuzzy set is the method applied for processing the exploration data with uncertainty,the geology data and drilling information could be effectively integrated with expert's experience by the fuzzy integration method,and the final resulting post probability map could be acquired to predict the undiscovered hydrocarbon distribution,so the method can reduce the exploration risks.In this paper the fuzzy integration method was used to predict the hydrocarbon distribution of buried hills of the Damintun Sag,and the results indicate that the hydrocarbon spatial distribution can be characterized.Therefore,the method can be used for guiding the petroleum exploration.