摘要
根据1992～1999年惠安县木麻黄防护林中星天牛种群数量系统调查,通过构建种群年趋势变动、种群季节变动、种群随机波动3个子模型进行叠加,建立木麻黄星天牛种群动态变动模型;根据动态模型描述木麻黄星天牛种群动态规律,并进行中长期预测预报;1999年星天牛幼虫实际发生量进行模型检验,结果表明模型预测精度较高。
A wave model of population dymanics of Anoplophora chinensis(Forster)in Casuarina spp.was set up on the basis of investigation of population number of the pest insect in Casuarina spp.in coast protec- tion forest of Huian from 1992 to 1999,by means of superposition of 3 submodels:annual trend wave of popu- lation,seasonal wave of population and populational random wave.According to the dynamics models was de- scribed dynamic regularity of pest population,and middle and long range prediction was made.The result through model test of real occurrence quantity of Anoplophora chinensis(Forster)larvas in 1999 showed that accuracy of the predicition model is high.
出处
《防护林科技》
2000年第S2期42-44,共3页
Protection Forest Science and Technology
基金
国家"九五"攻关专题(编号:96-005-04-04-04)
关键词
星天牛
种群动态
ARMA(p
q)模型
Anoplophora chinensis(Forster)
population dymanics
ARMA(p,q)model
