铁路旅客列车开行方案决策模型

Decision Model of Railway Passenger Trains Plan

在分析传统运输模型不足的基础上 ,综合考虑旅行时间、旅行费用、旅行方便与舒适多因素对市场细分的影响 ,以及运输能力使用与需求转移的影响 ,构造了一个旅客列车开行方案决策模型 .其应用分两步进行 :通过预测客运需求和各类客流特征 (如平均收入水平 ) ,确定不同旅客列车需求量的概率分布 ;用 NLP模型求解各类旅客列车开行方案 (列数 ) .模型中参数定性分析表明 ,不同种类旅客列车间速度。

After analyzing the disadvantages of conventional transport model,a new math model( NLP) for decision of passenger trains operating plan was putforward,which includes the influence of transport re- source utility and the passenger demand change affected by train travel time and costas well as comfortand accessibility. There are two main steps for getting the solution of the model. First,the probability distri- bution of different level trains was calculated through the forecastof all kinds passenger demand and their characteristics( e.g.average income per capita) .Then,the model was applied to decide operating plan for different trains.At last,according to qualitative analysis of some factors included in the model,the ratios of travel speeds,cost between different trains and change of passenger characteristics will make effects considerably on the railway passenger volume and its distribution.