空档穿插的概率分析

Probability Analysis on Gap-Inserting

定义了空档、可插段等概念 .以主车流车辆的车头时距概率密度函数及其均值为基本函数和参数 ,探讨了空档、可插段、非插段、相邻两空档之间时距的概密函数和均值表达式 .发现 ,主车流上各次车辆到达其实是一个随机过程 ,利用概率论中的更新过程理论 ,分析了这个随机过程 ,得出了次车流上到达的车辆无须等待 (零延误 )的概率、次车流上车辆的延误时长的概密函数以及延误均值表达式 .用一个非信号交叉口的实际观测数据对上述理论结果作了检验 .

The gap,insert- able interval and etc.were defined.On the basis of the probability density func- tion of headway on the main flow and its mathematical expectation,the probability density functions and mathematical expectations of the gap,insert- able interval,non- insert- able interval and headway of gap were gained. Because the vehicles arrivalon main flow is a stochastic process,some results ofrenewal pro- cess theory can be used to research the gap- inserting problem. By this way,the probability density func- tion of the delay of the vehicles on sub- flow and its mean value were found.At last,these theoretical re- sults were verified by the observed data of a non- signal intersect.The previous study about gap- inserting problem were developed on generalization and method here.