基于交叉分层Logit的轨道站点周边居住地和出行方式联合选择模型

Simultaneous residential location and travel mode choice es-timation around rail transit station based on cross-nested logit model

从微观角度研究了轨道交通建设对居民居住地选择和通勤出行方式选择的影响,分析了居住在轨道站点周边并选择地铁出行的概率,为解决居住地选择区位间的空间相关性,构建了交叉分层Logit概率估计模型。选取影响因素如个人属性、社会经济属性、出行特性和土地利用属性为联合选择模型影响变量,建立了轨道站点周边居住地和出行方式同时选择模型。利用Biogeme软件,对模型参数进行估计和检验,同时模拟分析了不同影响因素发生变化时引起的居住和出行方式选择概率的变化情况。结果表明,居住地离轨道站点越近的居民越倾向于使用轨道交通出行方式,当小汽车出行时间增加时靠近站点附近的居民越有改乘地铁的趋势。

Residential location and commute choice are jointly related decisions among station-area residents.The impact of rail transit on residential location and commute mode choice was analyzed from a microscopic perspective.On account of the advantages of cross-nested logit model structure to allow capturing the potential spatial correlation between spatially contiguous alternatives,cross-nested logit model was specified to estimate the joint residential location and mode choice around the rail transit stations.Factors as not only the individual and socio-economic characteristics but travel and land use attribute as well were defined as exogenous variables.This model has been calibrated in biogeme.In addition,the change of alternatives probability brought by factors variation was simulated.The results show that those living nearer rail transit stations tend to rail-commute far more often and when the car commute time increase the nearer residents live rail transit station,the higher probability rail-commute shift.