21世纪初大国经济力量对比变化趋势与国际政治格局

On the Balance and Development Trend of Big Powers' Economic Strength and the Pattern of International Politics in the Early 21st Century

21世纪初国际政治力量对比将发生巨大变化 ,美国继续保持超强地位 ,但其实力优势及对世界的影响力明显下降 ;日本实力大幅下降、印度上升为大国、中国在大国中的实力排名前移 ,大国体系大幅调整 ,西方色彩淡化。此外非西方国家实力在全球对比中呈上升趋势。因此 ,2 1世纪初的国际政治格局既不是单极结构或两极结构、也不是多极结构的简单复活、更不是“文明间的冲突”。中国因经济实力大幅上升 ,将成为新世纪国际政治格局中的主体力量之一 。

There will be a great change in the balance of international forces in the early 21st century. The US will continue to hold a dominantly powerful position, but its superiority and influence over the world is obviously declining. As Japan falls greatly in its strength, India will rise to a big power and China will rank a bit forward. Systems of big powers are to be readjusted and western flavor will gradually thin. Besides, non-western countries rise in their strength in compariosn with other countries. Therefore, we can say that the pattern of international poslitics in the early 21st century is neither a one-pole or two-pole structure, nor the revival of a multi-pole structure. It is not “a conflict among civilizations” at all. With its rise in economic strength, China will become one of the principal bodies and exert a great influence on the pattern of Asia-Pacific and global politics.