太阳活动短期预报效果及预报评价的探讨

EFFECT OF SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND PROBING INTO EVALUATION OF PREDICTIONS

文对照太阳活动持续性预报技术（ＣＨ） ， 统计了世界警报处的技术（ Ｗ） 、北京天文台七十年代技术（Ｂ７） 和九十年代技术（Ｂ９） 同时期的短期预报效果提出了评价预报技术效果的Ｑ 指数， 它综合反映了报准的正效果和误报的负效果利用Ｑ 指数， 对上述典型预报技术的效果进行了对比评价； 并据之提出了改进预报技术的具体科学途径特别指出， 短期预报技术思路应做重要转变： 太阳活动持续性预报技术应作为改进后技术的基本成分； 把现在直接预报太阳活动的水平，

In the paper,the effects of short-term prediction techniques of solar activity of the World Warning Agency (W) and Beijing Astronomical Observatory in 1970s(B7) and 1990s(B9) were analyzed statistically by the standard of the effects of the persistance prediction technique(CH) in the same periods of time A Q-index evaluating effects of prediction has been put forward;the index indicates the synthesis of positive effects of correct forecasts and negative effects of false forecasts Against the persistence prediction (CH),the effects of WWA prediction (W),BAO prediction using 1970s' technique (B7) and 1990s' technique (B9) during the same periods of time as (CH) have been evaluated by the Q-index Based on the above,we have advanced a concrete scientific way to improve the short-term prediction technique Especially,we have raised that in order to improve prediction technique,the results of persistence prediction should become the basic component of short-term prediction of solar activity;namely,present prediction of forecasting the levels of solar activity should be transformed to forecast the coming change of solar activity levels with the aim of using the effects of persistence prediction fully