麦双尾蚜发生程度与气象因素的关系

OCCURRENCE LEVELS OF THE RUSSIAN WHEAT APHID IN RELATION TO CLIMATIC FACTORS

利用新疆塔城１９８９ ～１９９６ 年８ 年的麦双尾蚜Ｄｉｕｒａｐｈｉｓ ｎｏｘｉａ （ Ｍｏｒｄｖｉｌｋｏ） 发生程度与１６个气象因子进行相关性分析， 通过逐步回归筛选因子， 确定麦双尾蚜发生量预测模型：ｌｏｇ Ｙ＝８－４１００－ ０－１０３３ＲＨ５ － ０－０２５３Ｒ５ ， 其中： Ｙ为麦双尾蚜发生百株蚜量； ＲＨ５ 为５ 月份的相对湿度（ ％ ）； Ｒ５ 为５ 月份的降水量（ｍ ｍ）。应用该模型预测１９９７ ～１９９８ 年麦双尾蚜的发生程度， 与实际发生情况基本吻合。

A model for predicting abundance of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko),was derived from regression analysis between the actual occurrence of RWA observed and the 16 weather parameters,1989-1996 in Tacheng,with screening of the parameters step by step. The model can be expressed as: log Y =8 41-0 1033RH 5 - 0 0253R 5,where Y is the number of RWA on 100 wheat tillers,RH 5 and R 5 are the relative humidity (%) and rainfall (mm) in May respectively in the year to be predicted. The model is simple and practical,and showed reliability to certain extent when used to predict occurring levels of RWA in 1997 and 1998.